A lion’s mane jellyfish can release up to 45,000 eggs per day. The jellyfish’s strategy is to lay as many eggs as possible and leave them to fend for themselves. Most of these eggs don’t survive, probably fewer than 0.1%. In ecology, this approach is known as a high reproduction selection—better known as r–selection. Fish, rodents, and insects are also highly r-selected. 

An elephant can give birth to one calf at a time. The elephant’s strategy is to dedicate its effort into raising a relatively small number of calves. Many of these calves survive to see adulthood. This approach might sound familiar because it’s how we raise our kids as well. In ecology, this approach is K-selection. Whales, sharks, and eagles are also highly K-selected.

The high r-selection approach is useful to species living in uncertain states. They are subject to varying food availability, climates, numerous predators. The high K-selection approach is useful to species living in states where resources are relatively consistent, and the group’s odds at survival get better as an individual lives stronger and longer.

r- and K-selection are at opposite ends of a spectrum. Many species find themselves somewhere in between a high r-selection and a high K-selection.

This ecological tendency can apply to uncertain times in business as well. If you’re working through an uncertain time—say, over a looming recession, or through fluctuating geopolitics—you may want to switch your efforts over to a higher r-selection. You may want to adapt the properties of a cold-blooded animal (which my very preliminary research suggests tend towards the higher r-selection end of the spectrum), to need less to survive.

During the onset of the pandemic, Rory Sutherland made the case for this high r-selection approach, suggesting also a simpler way to make the case for advertising and marketing (that nobody ever uses probably because it’s too simple, and doesn’t sound smart enough). He writes, “It’s the simple argument that the main value of self-promotion is not in achieving narrow, predefined strategic goals…. but simply because it increases the surface area of your exposure to future good fortune, often in ways which are impossible to predict in advance. The low-K approach to getting lucky.” In this perspective, it’s a number’s game, so you want to get as many entries or attempts in as possible.

That might mean loosening up your targeting, broadening your positioning, searching for new markets, and also just generally trying to spread your existing media further than usual. It also means generally trying new initiatives, making smaller bets, and seeing what sticks. 

More effectual reasoning, less causal reasoning. More like a jellyfish, less like an elephant. Make a large portfolio of small bets like an animal with high r-selection.