When Ryan Holiday writes about creative work, I read. His book Perennial Seller has been super helpful as I’ve been promoting Creative Doing. 

In one of his recent posts, he explains that his third book, The Obstacle Is the Way (and ensuing series on stoic philosophy), was nowhere near a sure thing when he wrote and sold it. He wrote the first three books while he had a day job, and Obstacle slowly acquired its audience over the year after Ryan published it. He writes:

The lesson I take from the success of my books is not that I’m a genius. It’s not that I can predict trends. It’s that following what you’re excited about is the best strategy (because I would have enjoyed the experience even if the book didn’t sell). It’s that trying experimental marketing ideas, like doing a BookBub and Amazon Goldbox deal (as unglamorous as that may sound) can pay off big-time. It’s that success usually takes longer than you expect, but after it happens, all that time disappears. It’s that by writing multiple books, instead of resting on my laurels, I put myself in a position to get lucky and stay busy.

By consistently publishing acceptable work, and keeping yourself in the groove, you put yourself in a position to make something good. Foresight is not essential.