What does success mean to you?

What values does it reflect?

How certain are you that you can accomplish what you set out to do? 

What reasons and evidence do you have for this certainty?

What are you willing to risk if you fail? 

What can you gain if you fail to accomplish your goal?

When you answer these questions, you define success for yourself—which means you’re making your own rules, and not following somebody else’s. You also practice your judgment and predictions. 

Put these answers somewhere you can easily find, so that when you look back you can fine tune your predictions for next time.