A couple of people from a tribe untouched by civilization are scouting their nearby land. They see a freight airplane landing on a runway. The plane is full of food. 

They report back to their tribe and instruct them to build a runway for an airplane. They believe once they build a runway, the airplane will land, and they will receive food.

Of course, this ritual doesn’t work. Simply building a runway won’t cause an airplane to magically appear and land and deliver food.

Similarly, when you see someone succeed, they’re usually very confident. That might lead you to think that in order to succeed, you just need to be more confident. You don’t realize it, but you’re looking for a shortcut.

There were many people who were confident they could match up against one of the NBA’s lowest ranked professional basketball players. When they tried playing 1-1, the pro beat them easily. Confidence didn’t help at all. In fact, they didn’t even know enough to realize they were being overconfident.

The truth is that both success and confidence are caused by a third factor: competence. Talent, practice, skill, character, experience—as you develop all of these qualities, you’ll gain more competence. Competence is a really great longcut.

To be clear, developing your confidence is a good thing—it can help you demonstrate your competence better, and earn you more opportunities.

Without competence, confidence often means overconfidence.